Why Republican Politicians Stick With Trump
You want to know something really depressing? Now is the time when Republicans have the least to fear from former President Donald Trump. There’s more than a year to go until the 2022 midterm elections, and at least 10 months until the primaries for those elections. Trump left office at one of his low points in popularity. Sure, most Republican voters still like him — as most Republicans like most Republican politicians (other than congressional leaders, who are almost always unpopular).
Not only that, but Trump’s electoral defeat is still fairly recent news. If there was ever a time to move away from him, it’s now.
That, of course, is not what’s happening. Just in the last few days, angry Utah Republicans hooted at Senator Mitt Romney, who voted to remove Trump from office after his impeachment trials. Over in the House of Representatives, Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney of Wyoming is apparently in danger (again) of losing her leadership post because she insists on accurately saying that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. And believing — or at least pretending to believe — Trump’s fantastic lies about nonexistent voting fraud is increasingly the central belief Republican elected officials must share.
My guess is that this has little to do with Trump. Republican complaints about fictional election fraud were central to their legislative agenda in state after state well before Trump’s 2016 campaign. It’s true that the specifics of that agenda have shifted somewhat in response to Trump’s whining. What that shows more than anything, however, is that attempts to hijack elections may only be the secondary motive for these laws; the primary reason for them is for Republican elected officials to convince their strongest supporters that they are doing their best to repress Democrats and various Democratic groups.
It’s possible, but unlikely, that any of this will seriously damage Republicans in 2022 and 2024. Elections tend to ride on what voters think about incumbents, not challengers. There is a slim possibility that the party will split and make itself unelectable. And there’s a somewhat greater chance that it will wind up throwing away a handful of elections by nominating candidates who run well behind what a generic candidate would do, as it’s done repeatedly over the last decade. For the most part, however, the out-party’s actions don’t have much to do with its electoral success.
The real damage continues to be to the party’s capacity to govern when it does win. And, even more seriously, to the party’s commitment to core democratic beliefs and procedures. Depressing, indeed — and scary.
1. Barry C. Burden, Julia Nestel, and Rochelle Snyder at Mischiefs of Faction on uncontested state legislative elections.
2. Also from Mischiefs: Seth Masket on the California gubernatorial recall effort.
3. Kathryn Dunn Tenpas on the Biden administration’s diversity after 100 days.
4. James Wallner on Democrats and the filibuster.
5. Perry Bacon Jr. on the divisions over ethnicity in U.S politics.
6. Katherine Tully-McManus on upcoming (and badly needed) efforts to increase staff pay on Capitol Hill. Paid Post3 Ways to Find Solid Investment Ground With Real EstateCrowdStreet
7. And Fred Kaplan on Biden’s policy towards North Korea.